In this 2011 Bank of Canada working paper, Economist and Assistant Chief of the International Economic Analysis Department, Philipp Maier discusses different approaches for using monthly indictors to predict Chinese GDP for the current and next year. He finds that a three-modelling approach yields significantly improved results (with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) some 60% lower) over conventional Auto Regressive (AR) benchmarks.
China Property Boom
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00fd282
This 2011 BBC program asks, why the entire world should be worried about soaring property prices in China? Justin Rowlatt goes both high-rise and underground to explore the extremes of the Beijing property market. He speaks to Jimmy Ye, a wealthy businessman who owns a gigantic wine cellar packed with exclusive European vintages. He also meets some of the have-nots, people with incomes who simply can't afford the spiraling prices of apartments in the city. Chen Xiafeng is a would-be property buyer who, even though she has a mortgage, doesn't have time to put money down on a flat before someone else has bought it. She hopes the property market will cool down. One of Beijing's leading property lawyers Bing Qin, fears for the consequences if it does not.
China's Green Revolution
This 2011 BBC program, looks at the fact that China's leaders say they want to clean up Chinese industry and invest in renewable low carbon technologies, but why? Is this about tackling global warming or does China just want to get a share of the booming clean energy market. Justin Rowlatt talks Dr Shi Zhengrong founder of the world's biggest solar panel manufacturer, Suntech. He also speaks to Daniel Foa, founder of FairKlima Capital who works with a local micro financing scheme to encourage investment in a novel low carbon technology - collecting bio-gas from pig waste which creates methane for a continuous supply of gas for home cooking.
This 2011 BBC program looks at Germany and China, which are two of the world's most successful exporters but increasingly they find they are on the same turf. As China moves away from simple manufacturing it needs technology. But there is a warning from Germany that China will take German technology? Artur Fischer, the head of the Berlin Stock Exchange, used to be involved in manufacturing. He tells Steve Evans that when businesses outsourced to factories in China, they found that the Chinese had copied their goods and then tried to sell them back to Germany. China says it is clamping down on the piracy of products. Stephen Wong is the director of the Hong Kong trading office in Berlin and tells Steve how China is going about this.
China's Current 5-Year Plan
This is the official website of China's 12th Five Year Plan, the roadmap for Chinese development to 2017.
These 2011 articles highlight the measures the People's Bank of China is implementing in its effort to curb inflation. We think the extent to which this might slow growth of the Chinese economy and the implications this will have on the growth of the global economy appear to be underestimated by many investors.
The Relationship Between China and the United States
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11382
A 2011 Charlie Rose interview with Carter Administration National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brezinski on China...& his book " Second Chance - Three Presidents and the crisis of American Superpower" is excellent.
China's Empty Homes
This 2010 BBC World Service - Business Daily program discusses how China is preparing new measures to attack rising inflation. It has already tried to slow down its galloping economy by cutting back bank lending and bringing in measures to deflate the bubble in property prices. Millions of middle class Chinese have gambled on buying new apartments. It's even reported that speculators are hoarding a large number of properties to fuel price rises.
China's Economy - Does Size Matter?
In this 2010 BBC World Service - Business Daily program, the question is asked: Just how big is China's economy? They dig through the numbers in Beijing, and ask if state capitalism is the right model to keep growth on track? Yasheng Huang, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, shares his view.
An Australian Perspective on China
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11328
2010 Charlie Rose interview with former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating on the changing role of China and Asia in the global economy and politics.
e-Commerce in China - the Alibaba story
2010 Charlie Rose interview with Jack Ma, Founder and Chairman of Alibaba.
The Tea Thieves: How A Drink Shaped An Empire
In this 2010 BBC program, Peter Day asks two expert witnesses to compare the two countries vying for the position of number one in the world economy: India and China. Is it a race, and if so, which of them will win?
The Biggest Domino
A 2010 ABC "Foreign Correspondent" program by Stephen McDonell in which he takes a closer look at the apparently unstoppable growth of the Chinese economy
China - Hidden bank loans
In this 2010 interview with credit rating agency Fitch's Charlene Chu she discusses how Chinese banks have been taking risky loans off-balance sheet and packaged them up as securities in trust companies.
In this 2010 interview about his book "Country Driving", Peter Hassler describes his observations on changes in rural China as its population migrates towards large industrialised cities.
China's Ghost Cities - The Great Growth Dis-connect
The above items are likely to send a chill down the spine of believers in the Chinese growth story...
China: Shaking the World
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/documentaries
As China takes on an ever more important role in the global economy, this 2010 BBC documentary considers how its influence is growing by examining political, economic and cultural aspects in this transformation. The four part series presented by Michael Robinson, a BBC China reporter in the early 1990's, now returning and recording his observations:
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Part one: Infrastructure transformation
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Part two: State planned China and free market ideology
- Part three: The management of social tension
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Part four: Can the Chinese model that has worked so well for 30 years continue to deliver growth for the next 30 years?
Determinants of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective
This 2010 working paper by the International Monetary Fund, analyses why between 1980 and 2008 Chinese private consumption as a % of GDP dropped from 55% to just 37%.
The Myth of Asia's Miracle
In this 1994 article Nobel Prize laureate in Economics and Economics Professor at Stanford University Paul Krugman takes a look at economic growth in China via the prism of productivity gains.
Indian Economic Planning
In 1963 Milton Freedman wrote about "planned economic development" in an Indian economic context, after spending some time with the Indian Ministry of Finance in 1955. The note is of relevance to Chinese economic development consideration, and some of the pitfalls that may emerge over time.
On Correcting Mistaken Ideas in the Party
These selected works of Mao Tse-tung from 1929, outline the approach to collective decision making. This work has been influential in forming the thinking of other political leaders, especially in North Korea.